Affected by restrictions on access conditions and integration in the future, the concentration of domestic industries is expected to further increase.
Rhenium soda is known as the mother of the chemical industry and is widely used as an important basic chemical raw material. After 2000, the soda ash industry in the world, mainly China, has developed rapidly, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 2.45%. The capacity growth rate was relatively fast from 2004 to 2010, and the production capacity contracted once in 2015. After 2015, the overall capacity growth rate declined. .
The world's soda ash industry originated in Belgium in 1865. Solvay discovered the key technology for the industrial production of soda ash, which is the Solvay alkali method. In 1865, Solvay was established as the first soda ash plant. . After 1870, Solvay established factories in Britain, Germany, Russia and the United States. From the middle of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century, with the discovery and exploitation of local trona, the United States became the world's major producer and exporter of soda ash. After 2000, China's soda ash production capacity has gradually increased, and its proportion in the world has become larger and larger.
In 2000, the global soda ash production capacity was 44.72 million tons, the output was 34.21 million tons, and the operating rate was 76%. North America is the main soda ash supplier, accounting for 32% of the global soda ash production capacity, and China's production capacity accounts for 24% of the world's 8.34 million Ton. China's soda ash production capacity has been increasing since 2003. As of the end of 2018, China's soda ash production capacity has reached 29.59 million tons, and the global production capacity has reached 70.33 million tons, accounting for 48% of the world's total. China, North America and Western Europe account for 80% of global capacity.
The production technology of soda ash mainly includes ammonia-alkali method, trona method and combined alkali method. Global ammonia-alkali plants are widely distributed, with a production capacity of 47%; trona plants have a capacity of 24%, mainly in the United States, Turkey, and China; combined alkali plants have a capacity of 23%, almost all of which are in China.
China's soda ash production can be self-sufficient, with exports accounting for 5% of the country's output. The export destinations are mainly Southeast Asian countries, and the import dependency is about 1%. In 2018, China's soda ash output reached 26.11 million tons, with an operating rate of 85.9%. After the elimination of production capacity and policy access restrictions in 2015, the operating rate of the soda ash industry increased to a high level.
The world's top ten soda ash production companies are Solvay Group (7.5 million tons), Genesis Alkali (4.4 million tons), Tangshan Sanyou (3.4 million tons), Shandong Haihua (3 million tons), Xina Resources (2.8 million tons), China Salt Group (2.63 million tons), Tata Chemicals North America (2.5 million tons), Kazan Soda Ash Company (2.5 million tons), Henan Jinshan Chemical (2 million tons), Central Chemical Company (1.9 million tons).
The Solvay Group's soda ash production capacity is distributed all over the world. Genesis and Sina Resources and Tata Chemicals are the US trona companies. Tangshan Sanyou, Shandong Haihua and China Salt Group are the top three soda ash production companies in China. The global soda ash industry has a CR4 of 0.25, the Chinese soda ash has a CR4 of 0.35, and the American soda ash has a CR4 of 0.9. The global soda ash industry is relatively scattered. The soda ash industry in China is a low concentration oligopoly, and the US soda ash is a high concentration oligopoly.
In recent years, global soda ash demand has also made great progress following the rapid development of production. Globally, glass is the most important downstream of soda ash, accounting for 52% of the demand for soda ash; followed by soap and detergent, accounting for 13% of the demand for soda ash; inorganic Chemicals account for 12% of the demand for soda ash, and the first three account for 77% of the demand for soda ash. From a regional perspective, China, Western Europe, North America and Southeast Asia are the major consumers of soda ash, accounting for 79% of global consumption. From a country perspective, China, the United States, Turkey, and India are the major soda producers, and the United States and Turkey are the major soda exporters.
In terms of consumption, China is consistent with the world. Glass, daily glass and photovoltaic glass are also the main consumer areas, followed by detergents and inorganic salts. China's major demand for soda ash is in South China, North China and East China, which are the main glass production areas.
North America accounts for 20% of global production capacity, but demand accounts for only 11%, and about half of the output is used for export.
The characteristics of the soda ash industry are as follows:
Resource-dependent, low-threshold basic industries
四种 The four raw materials of soda ash are coal, natural gas, raw salt, and limestone, all of which are natural resources and have resource dependence. The United States is rich in natural soda ash, good quality of soda ash, and a high share of soda ash export market. Production methods of soda ash The soda ash method, hydrazine method and ammonia-alkali method are relatively early technologies, and the technical threshold is not high. Therefore, the soda ash industry is a resource-dependent and low threshold industry. Soda ash is an important basic industrial raw material. No matter it is soda ash or glass, there are no competitive alternatives under the current technical conditions.
Soda ash has a greater impact on raw salt and glass in the industrial chain.
The price of coal and natural gas has a greater impact on the cost of soda ash.
The raw salt production capacity exceeds 110 million tons, and the soda ash industry has a production capacity of about 30 million tons. If the consumption of salt is calculated at 1.5 tons, about 4500 tons of salt will be consumed, and the influence on raw salt will reach about 40%. The main downstream of synthetic ammonia is urea. Synthetic ammonia has a certain impact on the soda ash industry, but soda ash has a smaller impact on the ammonia synthesis industry. The main uses of coal and natural gas are heating and power generation. Chemical demand accounts for less than 10%. Soda ash has little influence on the price of coal. Downstream glass of soda ash accounts for about 60%. One ton of glass requires 0.2 tons of soda ash, accounting for 20% -30% of the glass cost. Throughout the industry chain, coal and natural gas have a greater impact on soda ash and glass, while soda ash has a large impact on raw salt and glass, and has little effect on synthetic ammonia, and at the same time, ammonia has little effect on soda ash.
Domestic soda ash concentration has improved
The soda ash industry has increased the concentration of the domestic soda ash market after the previous large capacity investment, elimination of production capacity and industrial integration. The market share of the top 4 domestic soda ash companies is 0.35, and the top 8 is 0.54. Subject to access restrictions and continued integration in the future, the concentration of the domestic soda ash industry is expected to continue to increase. The "Access Conditions for Soda Ash Industry" implemented on June 1, 2010 stipulates that the threshold for newly-built domestic soda ash plants is 600,000 tons of combined soda method and 1.2 million tons of ammonia soda method. Based on this estimate, the investment in new installations is about 1 billion yuan or more, and the construction period is about 3 years. "Access Conditions for Soda Ash Industry" also requires that new production capacity should actively adopt advanced process technology, select energy-saving and environmentally-friendly equipment, and implement on-line testing of main process sections and equipment parameters and adopt a DCS (distributed) control system.