2020 is the target year and key year for the three-year action plan to win the Blue Sky Defense War. The success of the autumn and winter of 2019-2020 will directly affect the achievement of the 2020 target. Affected by El Niño, and it will continue until the end of the year, leading to the overall deviation of meteorological conditions in the autumn and winter of 2019-2020, a new round of comprehensive air pollution control actions have begun in October. At the same time, with the arrival of the northern heating season, the differential peak production of autumn and winter in key industries is about to begin, the implementation time is from mid-November 2019 to mid-March 2020.
Affected by comprehensive air pollution control actions, alumina start-ups are limited, downstream demand for caustic soda is shrinking again, coupled with the current positive signing period for alumina and liquid alkali, and the North China alumina plant ’s signing price for flake alkali has dropped significantly, making the Shandong region highly Alkali prices have fallen sharply, with prices falling by 110 yuan / ton this week, a drop of 8%, and prices in the past two weeks by 200 yuan / ton, a drop of up to 14%. In terms of protopine, although downstream demand has not improved and traders' enthusiasm for purchasing has weakened, it is currently in the signing period with alumina. In order to alleviate the pressure on aluminum companies, prices in major northwestern factories have not changed this week.
From the current market perspective, due to the restraint of demand, the caustic soda market is likely to decline weakly. Although the price of the sodium alkali in the northwest region is not very volatile this week, there is still downside risk in the later stage!
In the medium and long term, we need to pay attention to the following points:
① The target year and key year of the three-year action plan to win the Blue Sky Defense War are coming, 2020, and environmental protection will become stricter from November 2019; ② Winter peak heating production in the north is coming, alumina, ceramics, chemicals, etc. Industry starts are limited, and demand will shrink again. ③ The current price of soda ash is low and there is still room for the market to decline in later stages. Soda ash will be used in place of some tablets in the downstream. ④ The trade friction between China and the United States will continue to create a certain negative market. Impact, especially on the textile industry. Overall, the contradiction between the supply and demand of the caustic soda market will gradually emerge, and it is difficult to make a big improvement. It is expected that the caustic soda market in the future market will not be optimistic.
Analysis of the recent domestic caustic soda market
I. Liquid Alkali Market
This week, the domestic liquid alkali market is mainly weak, and prices in most regions have been reduced to varying degrees, especially the most significant drop in high alkali prices. The current downstream demand is average, the trading atmosphere on the market is light, support is limited, the market is bearish, and people in the industry are more open-minded. Increasing supply in Shandong area, average downstream demand, coupled with the price of alumina signing and falling prices with some tablets of alkali, has caused the local high alkali price to fall sharply, at a rate of 110 yuan / ton; poor downstream demand in Hebei and Jiangsu, and affected by Shandong Regional prices have fallen, and local prices have also fallen. Inner Mongolia ’s downstream demand is average, and due to the reduction in the price of some alumina orders, the local liquid alkali price has also fallen. The Henan region ’s market has sufficient supply, and downstream demand is average. It is difficult to have support, and some enterprises have lowered their prices; downstream demand in southern China is average, and due to the impact of low-cost sources in Hunan, local prices have fallen again; other regions have remained relatively stable.
As of October 30, the prices of the liquid alkali market in mainstream domestic regions are as follows:
Shandong area: 32% ion membrane 830-850 yuan / ton, 50% ion membrane 1210-1230 yuan / ton; Jiangsu area: 32% ion membrane 900-960 yuan / ton, 50% ion membrane 1450-1500 yuan / ton; Zhejiang area: 32% ion membrane 980-1060 yuan / ton, 48% ion membrane 1430 yuan / ton; Hebei area: 32% ion membrane 800-890 yuan / ton, 50% ion membrane 1470 yuan / ton; Henan area: 32 % Ion membrane 810-830 yuan / ton, 50% ion membrane 1350 yuan / ton; Inner Mongolia: 32% ion membrane 660 yuan / ton, 50% ion membrane 1050-1100 yuan / ton; 32% ion membrane 930- 960 yuan / ton, 50% ion membrane 1400-1430 yuan / ton.
The enterprises in the early stage of maintenance have resumed operation one after another, the market supply gradually increases, the downstream demand is not good, and the alumina start-up is limited. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market has begun to emerge. Traders are actively shipping. In view of this, it is expected that domestic liquid alkali will still be mostly weak in the short term.
Second, the protopine market
This week, the domestic alkaloid market is mainly stable and weak. Currently, the mainstream ex-factory price of 96% tablet alkali is 2750-2800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of 99% tablet alkali is 2850-2900 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week.
On Monday (October 28), the latest offer of Junzheng is the same as last week. To a certain extent, it has the effect of stabilizing the market. In addition, the alumina signing is imminent, and there will be no major changes in the northwestern factories. , But the actual transaction price still declined. At present, social inventory has increased, and downstream terminal enterprises mostly consume early inventory. Traders are generally enthusiastic about purchasing, and the actual volume of new orders is small. In addition, the alumina start-up is limited. Aluminum companies have lowered prices. Some Shandong alkali companies have lowered their prices. To some extent, this has put pressure on manufacturers of Inner Mongolia Tablets. At the same time, due to the sharp fall in the price of high alkali in Shandong, tablet alkali has also lost favorable support in terms of cost, and people in the industry are more open-minded.
As of October 30, the market price of protopine in mainstream domestic areas is as follows:
3,000 yuan / ton in East China, 3100-3300 yuan / ton in Guangzhou, 2700-3000 yuan / ton in Shandong, 3000-3100 yuan / ton in Tianjin, 2900-3000 yuan / ton in Hebei, 2550-2600 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia Tons, Xinjiang region 2400 yuan / ton, Ningxia region 2550-2600 yuan / ton, Qinghai region 2600-2650 yuan / ton, southwest region 2950-3000 yuan / ton.
Currently, the company's inventory has increased, downstream demand is weak, traders are under pressure to ship, and downstream terminals have a wait-and-see attitude, and they just need to purchase. At the same time, due to the impact of environmental protection, the operation of alumina has been limited, the demand side has been reduced again, and the price of liquid alkali has been reduced, and the cost side has also lost support. Although the alumina signing period is currently underway, the major Northwest manufacturers intend to support prices, in the short term may stabilize prices, but the risk of downside in the later period is still greater. Pay more attention to the changes in the inventory of the manufacturers and the signing of the alumina.