The urea market has been declining since the "Eleventh" period. Although it has occasionally reversed, its rise has been relatively small and its duration is relatively short. The price of urea in India this time is to show the current embarrassment of global urea: India ’s urea bidding on November 14 received a total of 16 bids, with a total bid volume of 3.15 million tons. The minimum bidding price for India ’s bidding on November 15 was US $ 248.38 (ton price, the same below) on the West Coast port, East Coast The CIF of the port is USD 251.37, which is equivalent to RMB 1659 yuan (considering the profit of traders) for Chinese ports. In the early stage of India, the shipping schedule was advanced to mid-December. Although the specific bid amount has not been announced, international news shows that India ’s There is only more than 1.2 million tons of urea gap in the fertilizer year in 2019. It is expected that the number of tenders in India should not be too large. It is not difficult to see from the above data that the buyer's market in the international market is relatively active at this stage, and this price is not even relevant to the domestic market. It is too friendly, the export enthusiasm of the company is reduced, and the current domestic urea price is also in a downward state. The industrial market needs sporadic procurement, and the agricultural market is mainly wait-and-see. In addition to the hundreds of 130,000 tons of urea Nissan is considerable pressure, multi-industry holding a certain pessimism, but in accordance with the latter situation, the price of urea will soon bottoms.
First, urea Nissan will be lowered by the end of November. The main reason why urea production at this stage differs from the same period of previous year is that there is no limited supply of natural gas, and some gas-head enterprises can still maintain production. Although gas heads are not limited in production, the price of natural gas has been raised. Under the influence of the maximum increase of not more than 20%, some gas head companies in the southwest, northwest, and Inner Mongolia are planning to enter the middle and late November. Production is restricted or suspended, and the resumption plan is set after February next year. Therefore, after the middle and late November, the domestic urea production will show a significant decline, and it is expected to continue until February to March next year. Supply pressure will be alleviated to some extent.
Second, the demand of the winter storage market will start. Recently, the rigid demand in some industrial markets still exists. Some large factories in Shandong and other places have tentatively raised their quotations. The agricultural market mainly waits and sees. The overall purchase volume is relatively small, but the domestic cultivated area has not been adjusted much, and the overall apparent demand has remained relatively stable. Stable, in other words, the demand is still there, but it is relatively lagging behind. The conference on phosphate and compound fertilizer has been held. It is expected that the sales policy of winter storage for some compound fertilizers will be announced next week. By then, the winter storage market will gradually start, and demand will It will improve, and the price of urea will also increase tentatively.
In summary, although the price of urea has been relatively weak recently, due to the support of cost factors, it is expected that even if the demand has not yet started in the later period, the signs of decline should ease, and the supply and demand situation of urea will be somewhat later in November. Adjustment, urea will not rise at that time is not impossible, but from the current market point of view, urea is unlikely to rise significantly in the later period.